Lucian Cernat

This policy brief examines EU public procurement data from the Tenders Electronic Daily (TED) to evaluate foreign bidders’ participation and success in winning EU public contracts. Despite data coverage limitations, the available information shows an increase in foreign participation in both full and partial contracts, with most activity concentrated in a few countries. Countries like the United States, Japan, and Canada focus on securing full contracts, while...

This Policy Brief explores the intertwined effects of trade and technological change (notably robotics and AI) on employment, highlighting a growing divergence between the number of jobs supported by exports and the declining labour intensity of exports in recent years. The decline in labour intensity may be sharply accelerated by the rise of robotics and the automation of routine tasks, displacing workers in manufacturing and logistics while enhancing...

This Policy Brief looks at the latest trends in services trade and tries to show their importance, in its various manifestations, for virtually all countries in the world. The paper starts with a short history of trade in services across centuries. Fast forward to today’s realities, the paper uses the most comprehensive datasets documenting the latest trends in global trade in services by modes of supply, trying to fill a gap in trade policy analysis and...

Europe’s digital transition is starting to bear fruits. Europe’s economic landscape is becoming increasingly digital, with sectors like information and communication technology (ICT) capturing a growing share of EU GDP. This Policy Brief examines the impact of these economic shifts on Europe’s trade profile and the policies that the EU can pursue to support this transformation. Disclaimer: the views expressed herein are those of the author and do not...