Events

In a new report, the Transatlantic Task Force on Trade and Investment presents new and ambitious initiatives for transatlantic leadership in global economic and trade policy.

The perception on China has changed among European countries. In the event of aglobal economic crisis, the country would be seen more as a potential financial paymaster rather than disruptive pupil. Yet, there are many challenges ahead for China. Economic pressures are building up, especially in the construction and real estate sectors. Growth is certainly moderating, and some observerswarn of a hard landing for China in the next few years. China’s traditional model for growth is certainly becoming exhausted. And to these economic challenges should also be added political ones. There are increasing pressures on permitting a more open public debate. China’s role in global and regional security policy has been growing rapidly, but it is still not clear exactly what China wants to use its power for, other than securing access to raw materials. A change of such policies may not be possible without challenging the sacred principals for China’s ruling party.

Is Europe again flirting with an activist industrial policy as model for increased competitiveness? Events in the last few years suggest that the trend towards a non-interventionist industrial policy may have come to a halt. The financial crisis of 2008-09 and the severe recession that followed prompted governments to give financial support to industries, which had been hard hit by falling demand. These interventions were in response to exceptional events, but seemed to indicate a greater willingness on the part of governments to support industries or companies that were deemed to be too important to fail. Will this trend continue – and what can new efforts to design industrial policies learn from Europe’s past experience in that field?

The number of bilateral free trade agreements involving economies in East Asia has surged. Yet their utilisation remains relatively low. In the context of the so-called ‘noodle bowl’ of agreements and its effects on business costs, of slow progress in the WTO, and of the greater focus on barriers to international business which operate ‘behind the border’, economies in the region are now looking for new paths to integration. These include the Trans-PacificPartnership (TPP) and also arrangements with ASEAN at their centre. What are the prospects of these different paths, how do they sit alongside existing regional institutions like APEC and also the WTO process, and what are the implications for trade and investment? These questions are discussed in this talk. Some implications for and opportunities for cooperation with the EU will also be noted.

In our series of seminars ahead of the WTO Ministerial Conference in December, we look at the WTO IT Agreement, a sector agreement that many consider as the template for future work in the WTO.

The Trade Ministers summit in Geneva in December is unlikely to give a boost to trade negotiations at the World Trade Organisation. The Doha Round of trade negotiations, which soon will celebrate its tenth anniversary, has been off track for years. Ministers will come to Geneva armed with statements declaring their affection to multilateralism, but they have no intent of doing actual negotiation and probably harbour little hope that negotiations in the Round can be revived.

Investment policy in the European Union is about to become centralized and member states are currently debating the shape and design of Europe’s new investment policy. Is it also time now to consider a Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) between the EU and the United States? The EU has already set out investment agendas in negotiations over bilateral trade agreements (e.g. with Canada), and at some point in the future it will need to decide a way forward for BIT negotiations with many other countries. What would be the conditions for a good BIT between Europe and the United States?

In December Trade Ministers will gather in Geneva for a summit at the World Trade Organisation. It is already clear that the meeting will offer next to nothing for the Doha Round of trade negotiations, which soon will celebrate its tenth anniversary. Ministers will come to Geneva armed with statements declaring their affection to multilateralism, but they have no intent of doing actual negotiation and probably harbour little hope that negotiations in the Round can be revived.

Few question today the unique and transformative role of the Internet. It has helped to spread the world's knowledge and wealth to an unprecedented number of people. The Internet has also played a key role in helping them claim their human rights, as we have witnessed during the Arab Spring. The Internet has empowered people and changed world affairs - but it has also raised anxieties over public safety, intellectual property and geopolitics - that have lead some governments to restrict access and expression, or impose unprecedented liabilities.

The IT Agreement in the WTO remains one of the organisation's greatest achievements as well as disappointments. Since its conception in 1996, we have seen ever faster cycles of innovation and product convergences, the internet, and the rise of China, India and the emerging economies in the ICT supply chains and services trade.