Events

These are dangerous times for the multilateral trading system. Never since its establishment in 1995 has the World Trade Organization been in such a perilous state. The shambolic 1999 Seattle Ministerial Conference previously represented the nadir in the fortunes of the organization but it rallied quickly afterwards and launched the Doha Round just two years later. Now no such recovery is in prospect. Dispute settlement apart, the WTO scene is characterised largely by drift and neglect, with no apparent light at the end of the tunnel. How did this state of affairs come about, and what are the potential consequences for the global trading system?

ACTA (the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement) was meant to enforce and harmonise IPR provisions in existing trade agreements within a wider group of countries, yet its implementation failed in Europe when European Parliament rejected this trade agreement earlier in July.

While trade agreements are motivated by better access to export markets, they are also catalysts for necessary domestic reforms to improve competitiveness. However, there is no shortage of critics who object to reforms or increased foreign imports and workers at home, especially in a time of crisis.

This summer saw a meltdown of the trade diplomacy between the EU, China and the US over trade defence. One particular contagious topic was state subsidies - and the use of countervailing duties against them. The debate led to a very public display of discord amongst the EU leadership, while the never-ending spat over subsidies to Airbus and Boeing turned into a transatlantic soap opera.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, now being negotiated between 11 states including Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, United States, and Vietnam, is supposed to solve many of the problems that have come from overlapping trade deals in the past decade. It is also supposed to be different—“a high quality, 21st century” agreement that will set standards for future trade agreements.

Russia recently joined the World Trade Organisation. The accession negotiations have been long and controversial, and there have been doubts in Russia as well as in other countries about the merits of having Russia inside the WTO. But now that the accession has concluded successfully, it is time to look at how to make the best of Russia’s entry. Is this an opportunity for larger reforms in Russia’s economic and commercial policy? Will it deliver on its promises to liberalise its economy? Should Europe fear that Russia will be a disobedient member of the WTO club? And what should be EU’s strategy for Russia’s membership in the WTO – and, beyond, bilateral relations to deepen economic integration?

It is said that we live in the Age of Asia. And it is in many ways true. With weak growth in Europe and the U.S., the world economy is increasingly relying on the continental economic awakening in Asia to continue. Yet rapid changes in the world economy, and the structure of world economic power, seldom take place without political friction. Managing a country’s relative economic incline can be as difficult as managing an economy’s relative decline.

Trade liberalisation in the post-war era was to a large extent driven by mercantilist instincts. A provocative observation for a free-trade purist, perhaps. Nonetheless, successful forms of negotiated trade liberalisation were based on an exchange of “concessions”, or reciprocated market access for exporters. The modern world economy, however, does not operate in accordance with the mercantilist textbook. The past decades of globalising supply chains have made it difficult to distinguish the national identity of a product and what exactly represents an export gain.

In our series of events on EU-Asia relations, ECIPE is pleased to invite you to a conversation with Søren Kelstrup, Head of Department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Denmark and Ambassador for Trade Policy.

In 1900 the global average life expectancy at birth was 31 years. By 2000 it was 66. Yet, alongside unprecedented improvements in longevity and material well-being, the twentieth century also saw the rise of fascism and communism and two world wars followed by a cold war.

The nineteenth century was a period of rapid economic growth characterised by relatively open markets and more personal liberty, but it also brought great inequality within and between nations. The following century offered sharp challenged to free-wheeling capitalism from both communism and fascism, whose competing visions of planned economic development attracted millions of people buffeted by the economic storms of the 1930s.