USD, EUR and RMB: Will the crisis spawn a tripolared currency system?
No doubt the world economy is undergoing some profound structural changes. Even if the crises in the past years have been felt everywhere, rising and globalising Asia – together with some economies in other parts of the world – has continued its rapid economic expansion. It represents a large portion of global production, trade and investment – and the lion share of world growth for the rest of this decade is estimated by the International Monetary Fund and others to be generated in Asia.
But what about the “market share” of currencies – will Asia’s rise also be reflected in profound shifts in the stability and attractiveness of international currencies? The Chinese currency, remninbi, is increasingly seen as a competitor to the role of the US dollar as the number one global reserve currency. The rise of the euro as a global currency has also been seen as challenged by the eastward trend of the world economy. But will China be able to reform its currency and capital markets policy to the extent necessary for the remninbi to stand alongside the US dollar and the euro as global currencies?
You are cordially invited to a seminar with Miriam L Campanella, a professor at the University of Turin and an expert on global financial policy.