Rejoining the EU is formally back on the UK political map if not yet a government commitment. Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s speech offering the possibility responded to pressure within his party, but was partly driven by potential ‘Made in Europe’ trade barriers reflecting a generally suspicious EU mindset which the UK must overcome whatever the future relationship.
There is common ground. Like France and Germany in particular, the UK needs growth. This is driving a politics of nostalgia in all three, a desire to rebuild European manufacturing, that disagrees mostly in the scapegoat for current woes, with centrists taking on China or in the case of Burnham Brexit and Margaret Thatcher, and populists choosing immigrants.
Bringing back the factories of the 1950s is however no basis for a successful rejoin campaign, or indeed country. Europe must be a high value-add economy to pay for the social and other protections demanded by the public, not least given an ageing economy. Rather than being paranoid about the intense inter-connectivity of the modern global economy, governments must be adaptive in being able to adjust to events rather than undertaking the hopeless task of derisking everything.
Reopening Brexit was almost forced upon Andy Burnham by its obvious failure and the knock-on instability into UK politics, but is not yet accompanied by this sort of thinking. As yet there is not quite the burning platform in other European countries either, but that is the direction of travel given a similar failure of centrists to present any realistic modern vision, with too much hope being placed in technocratic backward-looking fixes as in the Draghi report.
As a few far-sighted Brussels folk have understood, there is thus an opportunity around the UK’s recantation to think through an updated Europe – given shared challenges of jobs, defence, Artificial Intelligence and big tech, inter-dependencies, erstwhile partners turning rogue, new distant in every way economic powers, and above all restoring a sense of personal agency and belonging. As well as being ever more important for the bloc, such a positive agenda also feels like the only path for a successful UK rejoin campaign.
To be clear this is not about UK demands for EU reform, rather the increasing call of restoring confidence in the face of an obvious loss of momentum. Something that offers an alternative to the far-right across Europe that is not a watered-down version of their manifesto but provides hope for the future, and can incorporate Ukraine’s future participation as much as the UK’s current public majority support to rejoin.
Close observers of political opinion polls may of course note support for UK rejoining reduces if it involves adopting the Euro. Such conditional questions are not particularly reliable, but speak to why the UK needs this bigger vision for Europe to rejoin, which is the risk of tepid political support drowned in minutiae.
There is a cottage industry of UK experts opining on the exact terms under which rejoining the EU could happen, alongside those calling for EU reform such as Tony Blair, and even those still somehow convinced that there can be special trade deals based around defence. Such remnants of previous failed campaigns are not going to be helpful to Burnham, not least as any hint that the UK still has obstructionist tendencies would kill any rejoin process stone dead.
The UK has not been a quick-learner about its third country status. Two years into a reset instigating by Keir Starmer’s government, and ten years after the referendum, too many still deny that the UK will be in a permanent negotiation with the EU whether from inside or outside. If the latter this can realistically only be based around the current Free Trade Agreement model bringing some preferences and many barriers depending on what is offered particularly on movement of people.
What has been missing from the picture since 2016 is a solid vision of what the UK is trying to achieve, original ideas of buccaneering Britain or a special transatlantic relationship having both proved unrealistic. For the EU, there was always a big picture, namely unity against UK efforts to divide, emphasising fundamental freedoms, and showing membership had value not least in being a powerful negotiator. This defensive posture though says little about the situation where the UK wants to return, other than there will still be no special deals.
An EU political vacuum already greets Ukraine’s desire for accession, and the same could easily happen to UK aspiration. With the UK’s search for growth probably insufficient to anchor its rejoin campaign, both sides lack a frame to handle the coming years.
Burnham’s suggestion that neoliberalism and Margaret Thatcher’s rule was the cause of much damage to the UK economy may well be shared by many in France, but is of little use not least given shared history over the creation of the still popular single market. The forever task of completion is meanwhile not enough for the EU not least as there must always be differences between Member States despite claims of the diehard federalists or UK Eurosceptics alike.
Thus the challenge for Andy Burnham is to develop the story of being European in the 21st century, in conjunction with those in the EU who seek a renewed bloc. In doing so he will have to take on a long-standing UK politics taboo about positivity towards Brussels, but only this together with extensive engagement with institutions will be sufficient to convince the EU as well as the UK that there is a sustainable direction of travel.
Across Europe, behind political smiles at Burnham’s speech lie numerous specific doubts and potential asks of the UK for many good and less noble reasons. There really are also many more pressing internal issues such as the budget and domestic travails of leaders in many countries. Yet ignoring this opportunity means a continent which continues to drift and blame others for doing so, putting up barriers to the neighbours rather than embracing them.
Given that he does not have a specialist EU advisor, and the UK diplomatic post in Brussels is not traditionally considered that important compared to Paris or Washington, this is a huge uphill task for Burnham. He lacks strong support domestically and effective interlocutors in the EU. Yet there is also the possibility of a mission upon which his overall electoral success could hang – not just for the UK but extending to the whole future of European political integration. This could yet have been a seminal moment – but may also just be too big or premature for a time of generalised insecurity.