Razeen Sally

India, like China, had a “good” crisis; both have spearheaded exuberant post-crisis recovery in emerging markets. A combination of stable government and roaring growth gives rise to predictions that India will hit annual growth rates of 10 per cent or more. This is India hype. Reforms have stalled since 2004, with no prospect of big change. The combination of a barely-reforming government in Delhi and turbulent global economic conditions will make it difficult...

The global economic crisis has sparked short-term divergence of economic performance between the West and emerging markets, and thereby accelerated the longer-run convergence of the latter on the former. This Shift to the East is also even more evident in international trade and FDI than it is in other channels of globalisation. But emerging markets’ political and economic institutions, and intra-regional divisions, continue to hold back their rise. That means...

China’s trade policy has shifted in the near-decade since it joined the WTO, argues Razeen Sally in a new study. It behaves more like a very large, complex economy and less like a small-to-medium-sized open economy. It inclines less to unilateral liberalisation and more to hard-bargaining reciprocity. China’s short-term challenge is to contain protection at home, concludes Sally. Beyond that, China’s challenge is to stimulate...

This paper discusses the economics and geopolitics of EU Taiwan commercial relations and weighs the case for a free trade agreement (FTA) between them. There is a widespread belief that China will oppose an EU-Taiwan FTA. The recent cross-Straits rapprochement, recently crowned by a trade agreement, could provide a window for Taiwan to sign trade deals with other partners. An FTA with Taiwan would boost some of Europe’s most competitive sectors in ICT,...