Past Events

Is there a case to reform investment protection?

The regional economic architecture is rapidly evolving in the Asia-Pacific, shaped by a plethora of alphabet soup mega-plurilaterals of TPP, RCEP and FTAAP. The world outside Brussels is increasingly convinced that TPP in particular, and the Asia-Pacific region in general will be the new agenda-setting pillar, and the first ‘competing’ economic integration that is large enough to have a considerable negative impact on the EU.

The November election to the Congress brought the Republicans in control of both the Senate and the House. Trade press are ripe with opinions about how the election will change the politics of trade in the U.S. for the better – and that there should now be a forceful attempt by the Administration and the Congress to establish a new Trade Promotion Authority that allows the U.S. to push the Trans-Pacific Partnership to an end and revive the TTIP negotiations. At the same time, both parties are not far away from starting the nomination process for the 2016 presidential race – a process that will see both sides playing for the gallery of their parties. Given the charged relation between the Administration and the Republicans on a host of other issues, what are the chances that they are willing to take a pause from adversarial politics in order to get a deal on trade policy?

The direction of China’s economic and strategic policy will set the tone of the 21st century. And under President Xi, there has been a shift in tone – and in the country’s general aspiration to fashion an economic and strategic approach to its neighbours and the world.

The most globally significant bilateral trade and investment relationship is between the U.S. and the European Union. An increasing amount of this economic relationship is underpinned by cross-border flows of data.

The new package of trade accords that was concluded at the World Trade Organisation’s Bali Ministerial Meeting late last year was a fresh start for the battered international trade body. Yet defeat has been snatched from the jaws of victory. A small number of countries refuses to agree on a protocol for the Bali deal on trade facilitation – and the entire agreement is now endangered.

Most Eurozone countries hit by the crisis find it hard to recover. Many economic indicators signal that there still are profound problems, if not a crisis. Government debt continues to rise while businesses reduce their credit exposure and struggle to grow and invest. Recession and deflation fears grow. The ECB continues to flood financial markets with low-cost liquidity, but investors do not celebrate it much. After a time of rosy optimism about the monetary union’s future economic development, consumer and business sentiment recently turned bleak – reflecting the dim prospects of the economy.

TTIP has run into opposition. Governments and NGOs in Europe are calling for key planks of the talks, such as investor protection, to be discharged. The political temperature of TTIP may be lower in the US, but key Congressional leaders and constituencies have their red lines too – with issues like intellectual property and trademarks becoming big concerns.

Europe is dependent on Russian gas for its energy supply. Yet is Europe really so dependent that its energy import should influence its general policy vis-à-vis Russia? While the popular image suggests the Kremlin to get its way in Europe by wielding its energy weapon – e.g. threats of gas cuts – the reality is that Europe has an increasing capacity to substitute Russian gas. Russia, too, has an economic interest to avoid a disruption that could put the country’s heavy energy investments in Europe at risk.

Urbanisation, globalisation and technological change have re-shaped societies and the world economy in the past decades. Urbanisation is accelerating. Globalisation is perhaps retreating now, but is continuously boosted by new technology and its capacity to integrate economies more deeply with each other. How do these forces of development and change link up with each other – and how will they evolve in the future?