Who will win and who will lose under the post-2013 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)? Will those member states that benefit most from the current distribution of the CAP budget be able to defend their privileges? Or will eastern European countries manage to push through a European flat rate of farm support that could increase their share of the CAP budget? In this working paper, Valentin Zahrnt considers criteria that are likely to guide the future distribution of CAP payments (e.g. fighting climate change), and he estimates member states’ future subsidy receipts. This reveals astonishing differences between the negotiating positions that some countries traditionally adopt and the subsidy levels they can expect from reform.